Has the US recession been called off for good?

Fears of a recession over the summer, ...

In the summer, fears resurfaced on the financial markets that the US economy was sliding into a recession. These were triggered by weak labor market data. In addition, the significant decline in the savings rate raised the question of how sustainable the strong growth in private consumption was, which had previously been one of the pillars of the economy. The extent of the concerns can be seen from the fact that the Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate by 50 basis points at its September meeting. It apparently feared that it had waited too long to cut interest rates.

... but the labor market strengthened ...

Meanwhile, these fears have diminished significantly. The turnaround in sentiment was triggered by the employment report for September, which was published a week ago. In that month, nonfarm payrolls rose by 254,000, which exceeded all forecasts. In addition, the data for the two previous months were revised significantly upwards. Since mid-2024, the pace of job creation has actually accelerated. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell slightly again.

For full text see attached PDF-Version.