US elections – Trump is gaining ground

Trump gains ground in the swing states

If we look only at the national polls, voting intentions have changed little in recent weeks. According to the analysis platform Realclearpolitics.com, Kamala Harris is just under two percentage points ahead of Donald Trump on average across the polls. This is only slightly less than last month. Nevertheless, the betting markets now give Trump a 57% chance of winning, after Harris was given a better chance in September.

This turnaround was likely triggered by the results of the latest polls in the swing states, which ultimately determine who will win a majority of the electoral college votes. While three weeks ago Harris was still ahead in four of these six states, she now only has a slight lead in Wisconsin. Harris will probably have to win all three states of the “rust belt”, i.e. Pennsylvania (19 electors), Michigan (15) and Wisconsin (10), to become president. Any defeats here would have to be offset by successes in the swing states of the south or southwest, i.e. Georgia (16), Arizona (11) and Nevada (6). However, this also means that she can only make up for the 34 votes she would lose in both Pennsylvania and Michigan if she also manages a sensation in a state that is actually considered safe to Trump.

Given the usual margins of error in the polls of plus or minus 3 percent, the race in the swing states is still extremely close. But Harris' position has recently deteriorated somewhat.

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