Germany – positive signals from private consumption
In the third quarter, private consumption in Germany was a major factor in the economy's return to slight growth.
Commerzbank Economic Research
10/31/2024
Inflation increases temporarily
According to preliminary data from Eurostat, the inflation rate rose to 2.0% in October (from 1.7% in September). The consensus among economists was 1.9%. Inflation rose particularly sharply in the volatile energy prices (from -6.1% in September to -4.6%). The core inflation rate excluding the prices of energy, food and beverages remained constant at 2.7% and thus surprised slightly on the upside.
Inflation is likely to continue to rise until the end of the year. This is also due to base effects stemming from lower energy prices in the autumn of 2023. This effect is already having an impact on energy prices in October and is likely to increase significantly in the coming months. This effect will also occur in November for the less volatile core rate. Inflation is therefore likely to rise sharply in November. Inflation will not fall again until next year. The weak economy in the winter months could then dampen inflation.
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