Trump v. Harris – timetable for the election

The latest polls show a neck-and-neck race...

According to the latest polls, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are almost neck and neck on a national average. In the end, the particularly contested states such as Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada will be decisive. In most of these swing states, Trump has built up a slight lead, but this is almost always within the usual statistical error margin of the polls.

When will the first results be available?

The first polling stations close at 11 p.m. GMT in the eastern parts of Indiana and Kentucky. At midnight, voting is over in six states with a total of 60 of the 538 electors. Among them is the first swing state, Georgia. At 0:30 a.m., North Carolina, among others, follows. In most states, the polls close at 1 a.m. (e.g. Pennsylvania and parts of Michigan) or 2 a.m. (e.g. Arizona, Wisconsin and the rest of Michigan). After that, with the exception of Nevada, voting only continues in states where the winner is likely to be clear anyway.

If it takes a little longer this time...

Projections for individual states are released based on exit polls only after the polls close in that state. If these do not show a clear result, the national media will be hesitant to call that state for one or the other candidate. In that case, the official result must be awaited. And this can take a while, especially if a large number of postal votes have to be counted. Although postal votes must be in the mail by election day at the latest, different deadlines apply for when a postal vote must be received at the latest. The period ranges from three days after the election (i.e. November 8, 2024) to 21 days (November 26). In the event of a very close election result in the state in question, the postal votes received after the election day could therefore be decisive.

... as it did in 2020 ...

Due to the coronavirus pandemic, an unusually high number of postal votes were cast in the 2020 election. In Pennsylvania, as in six other US states, postal ballot envelopes may not be opened and prepared for scanning/counting before Election Day. The counting itself may only take place after the polling stations have closed. The more complicated process of counting the absentee ballots therefore already led to delays. Furthermore, the election in Pennsylvania was very close, which, due to the threat of legal action by the losing candidate, called for particular care. Ultimately, the election winner was not declared until Saturday – four days after the election.

... or 2000 ...

In 2000, it took even longer for the decision between Republican George W. Bush and Democrat Al Gore to be made. The sticking point here was the decision in Florida, where the two candidates were extremely close. Bush initially led, but after a recount in one constituency, his lead shrank. His opponent Al Gore then sought to enforce further recounts through the courts. After some back and forth, the Supreme Court took the decision upon itself and addressed the matter in three rulings. The Court finally decided on December 12, with a narrow majority of 5:4 votes, that a constitutional recount by the legally prescribed deadline at the end of that day could not be guaranteed and therefore stopped the recount. With 537 votes, Bush was ahead at this point and thus won the electoral votes for Florida and therefore the presidential elections. His election victory was therefore not confirmed until 35 days after the election.

... and 2024?

Once again, a large number of postal votes are expected, although the record set in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic is unlikely to be reached (67 million postal votes were received at the time, out of a total of 159 million votes cast). Many states have invested in technology to speed up the processing of postal votes. In Pennsylvania, for example, the state government has also provided more money to hire additional election workers. Overall, the security and efficiency of the processes have been improved, partly to allay any concerns about election fraud.

This suggests that things could move a little faster in 2024 than in 2020. However, if the polls are to be believed, the result is likely to be close again, and the losers could once again resort to legal maneuvers, which could lead to further delays. Thus, it is questionable whether the winner will be known as early as Wednesday, the day after the election.

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