Is Trump making the dollar strong?

The US dollar has gained significantly against other currencies since Donald Trump's election as US President.

people___profile_24_outline
Ulrich Leuchtmann

Commerzbank FX Research

11/29/2024

However, this appreciation will only prove sustainable if the Federal Reserve fights the inflationary consequences of the policies announced by Trump, which would, however, go against his trade policy. If the Fed were to allow higher inflation, the US dollar would ultimately suffer from Trump's policies.

The market expects a strong Trump dollar

Since the US presidential election, the US dollar has appreciated by around 2% on average against the other G10 currencies. Furthermore, a good portion of the appreciation of the US dollar since the beginning of October, when the polls indicated an increasing likelihood of a Trump victory, can probably be attributed to the election. Consequently, the market seems to assume that “Trumponomics” (the policies of the incoming Trump administration) will have a significantly positive impact on the value of the US currency.

Now, the market does not have any secret knowledge. The conclusion of USD strength follows from what has emerged so far from public information, in particular from statements made by Donald Trump and his team during the election campaign.

For full text see attached PDF-Version.