France – PM Barnier about to fall?
In the coming days, French Prime Minister Barnier and his government could be toppled by a vote of no confidence.
12/02/2024
Vote of no confidence against Barnier?
A new government crisis could erupt in France in the coming days. Today, Prime Minister Barnier is likely to invoke Article 49.3 to enact the law on the financing of social security. The National Assembly can only prevent this by passing a vote of no confidence in the government. The “New Popular Front” (Nouveau Front Populaire, NFP), a coalition of several left-wing parties, is likely to do so. It remains to be seen whether the right-wing populist Rassemblement National (RN) – Marine Le Pen's party – will join this vote or continue to tolerate the government. As the tone between the government camp and the RN has recently become noticeably more tense, it is quite possible that the RN will vote against the government in Wednesday's vote of no confidence and thus topple it. Together with the NFP, the RN has a majority in the National Assembly.
New elections only possible again in the summer
In view of the difficult majority situation in parliament, one obvious idea would be to hold new elections to clarify the situation. However, according to the French constitution, this is only possible one year after the last elections, i.e. next summer. It is also questionable whether new elections would actually lead to a significant change in the balance of power in parliament.
For full text see attached PDF-Version.
