Election update Germany – Will the SPD succeed in catching up?
Even though the election campaign is already underway in Germany, little has changed in the polls since the break-up of the ruling coalition.
Commerzbank Economic Research
12/11/2024
Lost vote of confidence paves the way for new elections
Today, Chancellor Scholz of the Social Democrats (SPD) will officially ask the parliament for a vote of confidence, which will be take place on next Monday. Should the Bundestag vote no confidence in him as expected, the way would be clear for new elections, which are planned for February 23. Federal President Steinmeier has already signaled that he will dissolve the Bundestag in this case.
Little movement in the polls
The election campaign has effectively been underway since the break-up of the traffic light coalition (SPD, the Greens and the FDP) just over a month ago. However, this has hardly caused any movement in the polls so far. The combination of Christian Democrats and their Bavarian sister party (CDU/CSU) together are still clearly in the lead, and the Liberals (FDP) and the Left Party are still threatened with failure to clear the 5% hurdle and might thus not be in the next Bundestag.
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