Election update Germany – The plans of CDU and CSU

A good two months before the planned snap elections, several parties presented their election manifestos this week.

Dr Ralph Solveen

Commerzbank Economic Research

12/17/2024

The problems are coming mainly from manufacturing, which is suffering from deep structural crisis. As a result, the falling ECB interest rates are unlikely to have a significant positive impact on the economy. After stagnation in the winter half-year, we expect only a weak upward movement. For 2025 as a whole, we expect a small GDP increase of 0.2 percent.

Still little movement in the polls, ...

After Chancellor Scholz deliberately lost the vote of confidence on Monday, we are one step closer to the snap elections planned for February 23. After Christmas, Federal President Steinmeier is expected to officially dissolve the Bundestag and confirm the date.

Although the election campaign is already underway, not much has changed in the polls in recent weeks. The SPD's race to catch up, which has been invoked by its representatives in particular, has not yet gotten off the ground. Instead, the CDU/CSU are still clearly in the lead, while the Liberals (FDP) and the Left Party continue to struggle with the 5% hurdle.

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