Election update Germany – Who will be in the next parliament?
There has been little movement in the polls for the Bundestag elections over the Christmas period and the turn of the year.
Commerzbank Economic Research
01/17/2025
CDU/CSU still clearly ahead in the polls
Just under 5 weeks before the Bundestag elections, the changes in the election polls are still limited. Despite slight losses, the combination of the Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian sister party (CSU) is still clearly in the lead with a good 30% (Chart 1). The right-wing AfD and the Greens have made some gains in recent weeks, while the Social Democrats (SPD) remain trapped in a narrow range between 15% and 16%. So far, there is no indication that they will rapidly close the gap to the CDU/CSU as they did in the hot phase of the last general election campaign.
BSW only just over the 5% hurdle, ...
Perhaps the most important change of the past week is the further decline in the ratings of the “Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance” (BSW), a new left-wing party founded just one year ago. While the polls shortly after the BSW's election successes in the three state elections in September were still predicting an average vote share of 8% and thus a secure entry into the Bundestag, the party is currently only averaging 5.1% in the polls we look at, with two projections suggesting it would currently fail to clear the 5% threshold with 4%.
... FDP and Left Party still below
There has been little change in the polls for the Liberals (FDP) and the Left Party, both of which remain below 5%. The FDP's poll ratings are still slightly higher than those of the Left Party.
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