How to finance higher defense spending?

Donald Trump is taking office today and has called for NATO countries to spend 5% of their GDP on defence.

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Dr. Jörg Krämer

Commerzbank Economic Research

01/20/2025

Even reaching 4% would be a major challenge – the scope of which most Germans do not understand. We have analysed the various options to finance higher defense spending.

Defence spending at the level demanded by Trump is not out of this world. On average, Germany spent 4% of its GDP on defence in the 1960s. Poland already achieves this ratio today.

But Poland's economy is growing by around 3% a year after adjusting for inflation, and Germany even reached 4.4% in the 1960s. This helps to increase defence spending. Because if GDP grows faster than consumer prices, civilian government (i.e. non military) spending can be increased in line with inflation and the remaining additional tax revenues can be used for national defence. This would be politically more feasible.

For full text see attached PDF-Version.