The consequences of Mr. Trump's tariffs

Who will be hit by Mr. Trump's tariff hammer?

In principle, Trump's so-called reciprocal tariffs affect imports from almost all countries. The US administration is already raising the general tariff rate by 10 percentage points on 5 April for all goods not originating from Canada or Mexico. However, there are exceptions for some products such as pharmaceutical products, chemicals, fossil fuels and semiconductors, which account for about a fifth of US imports (see our Economic Briefing for a more detailed explanation). On April 9, the reciprocal tariffs will then be raised from 10 percentage points to a specific tariff for each partner country.

Depending on the level of this specific tariff rate and the share of direct goods exports in domestic production, the economies of the US trading partners will be affected to different degrees. Among the major trading partners, Viet Nam and South Korea are likely to be particularly hard hit. The tariff on goods from Vietnam will be increased by 46 percentage points, and a considerable share of this country's economic output is exported to the US. Among the developed economies, South Korea is particularly dependent on the US market. Germany and Italy are in the middle of the pack in this regard. The additional tariff of 20% is somewhat lower than that on deliveries from Asian countries, and direct exports of goods from Germany (and Italy) account for ‘only’ just under 2 per cent of GDP.

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