US inflation pressure falls
US consumer prices fell by 0.1% month-on-month in March.
Commerzbank Economic Research
04/10/2025
The data
US consumer prices fell by 0.1% in March from the previous month. The year-on-year rate fell from 2.8% to 2.4%. The more important core rate, which excludes the volatile prices for energy and food, was 0.1% from the previous month. The year-on-year rate here fell from 3.1% to 2.8%. The data were consistently about two tenths below expectations.
The details
Inflation in the US had apparently slowed down before Mr. Trump's massive tariff hikes. After the surprisingly low figures in February, they again remained below expectations in March.
This is not only due to the significant decline in gasoline prices in March, but also to the weakening of the core rate excluding energy and food (chart 1). What is important here is that the stabilization of the core rate in March was fairly broad-based. Prices for core goods fell for the first time in a while, and the traditionally stronger inflation for core services slowed to just 0.1%.
The data was not yet significantly affected by the recent tariff increases. We continue to expect inflation to rise noticeably in the coming months.
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