Germany – Early Bird is flying high

Our leading indicator for the German economy continued to rise in February.

Dr. Ralph Solveen

Commerzbank Economic Research

03/07/2025

At 49 points, it is now at a level that has usually been followed by quite strong economic growth in the past. The main driver of the increase remains the ECB's interest rate cuts, but the global economic environment has also improved somewhat in recent months. This augurs well for the German economy which will pick up speed in the coming months. However, the upward trend is likely to be restrained in view of the threat of a tariff conflict with the US and the structural problems of the German economy.

The Early Bird continued its upward trend in February, rising from 44 to 49 points. The main driver remains monetary policy.After all, the ECB has cut interest rates until recently and the market generally expects further downward steps. In addition, the headwind from the global economy is diminishing.The weighted average of the purchasing managers' indices for manufacturing in the US, China and the eurozone (excluding Germany) has risen in recent months and is now only just below the 50 mark, above which the indices would signal growth in the sector.The Early Bird also received a slight tailwind from a weaker euro.

For full text see attached PDF-Version.

Download

Germany – Early Bird is flying high (pdf, 109 KB)

Germany – Early Bird is flying high

Download

Further publications

Germany – Early Bird flying even higher

Germany – Early Bird with tailwind

Germany – Early Bird keeps on rising