US payrolls: the pre-trade war situation
The US labor market was in rather good shape in March, i.e. before the massive tariff increases by the American government.
Commerzbank Economic Research
04/04/2025
The data
Non-farm payrolls rose by 228k in March, much more than expected (Commerzbank forecast +90k, consensus +140k). However, the job growth of the two previous months was revised down by a total of 48k. The unemployment rate, which is based on a different survey, rose slightly to 4.2%.
The largest gains were seen in health care services. Retail trade employment also rose quite sharply, but this was partly due to the end of a strike. US federal government employment fell slightly (-4k) to 3 million; the major wave of job cuts by the Trump administration has not yet had a major impact here.
As of March, the US labor market was relatively robust and there is no sign of a slump.
For classification
The reference period for the employment report is the pay period that includes the 12th of a month. Thus, the current data covers the first half of March. President Trump did not announce the latest drastic tariff increases until 2 April. It will therefore take some time for any adverse effects to be reflected in the employment data.
For some time now, companies have had to contend with a sharp increase in uncertainty, particularly in the area of trade policy. The business environment is in a state of flux and costs for companies – especially for those that rely on supplies from abroad – are rising. In addition, there is growing uncertainty among consumers, which has recently been reflected in a noticeable slowdown in consumer spending. In this situation, companies are likely to be less willing to take on new staff. A weakening of the labour market is therefore to be expected in the coming months.
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